Before the 2024 United States presidential election, almost all political pundits characterized the race as a tie. Even then, the conventional wisdom was that Kamala Harris would at least easily win the national popular votes. Yet, on Nov. 5, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win both the presidency and the popular vote in 20 years. Young voters, White suburbanites, urban voters of color…virtually every single demographic in the U.S. swung toward the Republican Party. For Democrats, it was a disaster.
Immediately after the election, several Democratic lawmakers denounced transgender women’s participation in women’s sports, blaming the party’s supposed overemphasis on transgender issues and identity politics as the culprit behind the Democrats’ bleed among working class voters who handed Trump the presidency. Others disagreed.“I don’t know why you can’t be both, why you can’t be supportive of civil rights and human rights in every iteration,” progressive Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown told POLITICO on an interview podcast after outperforming Kamala Harris in Ohio by nearly 8 percent.
Regardless of which version of the argument you buy, the economy was central to voters’ decision. According to the Associated Press/Fox News exit poll, Americans entered the voting booth with the economy and immigration in mind, the two issues Trump excelled in voters’ perception. Households with an annual income below $100,000, which made up 69% of the voters, voted for Trump by a slim margin in a sharp reverse of Democrats’ affinity among lower and middle class voters.
In hindsight, this is well within expectations. The Biden administration was initially in denial about the border crisis and was touting positive economic numbers that Americans could not feel. Gas and grocery prices remain sky-high while 64% of voters believed the economy was not robust. In addition, record housing prices are driving up the cost of living in urban America and are disproportionately affecting young Americans. In essence, Democrats were championing a fantasy voters don’t live in.
Even so, most of the economic and immigration policies Democrats support are popular. An overwhelming majority of Americans support expanding child tax credit, requiring paid parental leave and raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour — all policies Democrats tout as a part of their progressive agenda. Even on immigration, a Pew Research poll found that more than two-thirds of Americans support Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy that granted legal status to immigrants who were brought into the US illegally when they were children.
Were Democrats talking about raising the minimum wage on the campaign trail? For progressive independent Senator Bernie Sanders, it was a clear no. Simply put, Democrats were too busy framing Donald Trump as a threat to democracy rather than addressing voters’ concerns. Kamala Harris and Democrats in general ran on expanding abortion access and saving democracy. Those issues seemed abstract to voters whose economic frustration felt more real to them than the “Trump is a tyrant” arguments Democrats made.
So no, it was not identity politics or transgender issues that led to Democratic losses across the country; virtually no voters listed either as their primary reason to vote for Trump. Even among Black and Latino Americans, to whom identity or racial politics was supposed to cater to, the economy and immigration topped most issues, and that drove them to vote more Republican this election.
“It’s the economy, stupid” basically sums up the election. Democrats don’t have to abandon their principles for social equality when 64% of Americans believe that efforts to promote gender equality are going about right or not far enough, and when 70% of Americans support same-sex marriage. However, Democrats need to meet voters where they are.
When a quarter of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and when 64% of Americans view the condition of the economy as suboptimal, touting Bidenomics not only dismisses voters’ economic frustration but also presents Democrats as out of touch with voters. With such a dire voter perception of the American economy, championing social issues such as abortion rights only plays into the narrative that Democrats are privileged enough to ignore Americans’ economic adversity, coming from a moral high ground of democracy or reproductive freedom. Democrats need to talk to voters instead of talking down on them. That’s when Democrats will win back White, Black, Hispanic and Asian American working class voters who felt ignored this election cycle.
That is why in spite of Trump’s victories across the country, Democratic Representatives such as Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez of Washington and Jared Golden of Maine won this November in districts that voted for Trump. Both of them ran their campaign in support of their largely rural districts by endorsing a national right-to-repair law and supporting rural sectors such as the timber industry, both of which are issues largely ignored by national Democrats but highly popular among rural voters. Building that trust between Democrats and voters, like the Senator Brown did in Ohio, will reconstruct the Obama coalition — composed of a racially diverse, working class, and even rural group of Americans — that left the Democratic Party after former President Barack Obama exited the White House.
Democratic policies are not unpopular: most voters do support a fairer economy and a more equal society in general. It’s the recent Democratic brand — out of touch, morally elitist and exclusive, voters say — that is unpopular. No doubt there are some Trump voters who came from a position of hate, but more felt left behind by the establishment whom Democrats are now associated with. When Democrats finally reach out to the voters who feel left out of Democrats’ equation for a more equitable America, maybe that’s when voters will vote for them again.